Uncertainty Surrounds GOP’s House Speaker Nomination Process

The race for the House Speaker position in the GOP has taken an unexpected turn, causing uncertainty and division within the party. House Speaker-designate Steve Scalise, a Republican from Louisiana, faces a daunting challenge to secure the speakership, with some senior House Republicans expressing doubt about his prospects.

“I don’t think he’s going to get it,” remarked one senior House Republican to Fox News, highlighting the uphill battle that Scalise now faces. The House leadership is grappling with the surprising resistance from rank-and-file Republicans after Scalise won the GOP conference’s nomination behind closed doors in a secret ballot.

Scalise, undeterred by the initial resistance, is actively working to gain support from fellow Republicans. However, the road ahead is long and challenging, and it may take days before a resolution is reached. Despite the uncertainty, there is still a possibility of a floor vote as early as Thursday.

The expectation was that Scalise could secure as many as 150 votes, but even the endorsement of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio, did little to boost his chances. This lackluster response suggests that there is limited enthusiasm among House Republicans for either Scalise or Jordan.

Comparisons have been made to the days of former House Speaker Paul Ryan, who played a crucial role in unifying Republicans after former House Speaker John Boehner’s unexpected resignation in 2015. There is a sense that neither Scalise nor Jordan possesses the same level of unifying influence.

Scalise’s situation hinges on the numbers. He received 113 votes during the GOP conference on Wednesday. Had he secured just one fewer vote, the conference would have been forced to hold a second ballot.

Notably, Scalise’s support included the three non-voting delegates to Congress who are part of the Republican conference but do not have a floor vote. The fact that Scalise “won” due to the support of these delegates has irked some House Republicans, as these members are eligible to vote within the conference but lack the ability to vote on the floor.

At this point, there appears to be more opposition to Scalise’s speakership than there was to Kevin McCarthy’s, who held the position previously. This development places the House in a more challenging position.

There is a growing concern that the House may remain in a state of stasis for days unless Scalise can garner support quickly. Additionally, there is no straightforward method to “undo” the speaker vote in the conference for Scalise, as it involves complex parliamentary procedures.

With these challenges in mind, some Republicans are exploring alternative options. One scenario being considered is granting temporary powers to House Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry, a Republican from North Carolina, through mid-November. This approach would keep the House operational, potentially prevent a government shutdown, and allow the GOP more time to elect a new speaker.

Another option is to “resurrect McCarthy,” according to one GOP source, although the details of how this might be achieved remain unclear.

As the situation unfolds, the GOP faces a critical juncture in the selection of its House Speaker, with many uncertainties and challenges to navigate.