U.S. Planning Possible Withdrawal of All Troops from Afghanistan: A Turning Point in U.S.-Afghan Relations

The United States’ decision to plan for the possible withdrawal of all troops from Afghanistan by the end of the year, if no security agreement is signed, marks a significant turning point in U.S.-Afghan relations. This development, which was announced by the Obama administration on February 25, 2014, reflects the growing impatience of the U.S. government with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai’s refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that would keep several thousand American troops in the country after combat operations conclude in 2014.

The White House and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel made it clear that time was running out for the signing of the BSA. In a phone call with Karzai, President Obama expressed his concern over the lack of progress in finalizing the agreement, which would ensure the presence of U.S. forces in Afghanistan beyond 2014. The White House statement noted that a deal was still possible with a new Afghan leader, even if Karzai failed to sign the BSA before the April election that would choose his successor.

The potential withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan has significant implications for both countries. For the United States, it would mean the end of a nearly 13-year war that began shortly after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The security agreement negotiated between Afghanistan and the United States would cover a continuing mission after 2014 focused on training Afghan forces and counterterrorism.

The possibility of a full withdrawal of U.S. troops, however, has raised concerns among some Afghan and international leaders. A senior Pakistani government official warned that such a move could lead to a civil war in Afghanistan. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official predicted that 30% of Afghan forces would desert if U.S. forces left the country.

For the Pentagon, Obama’s order to begin planning for a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan means preparing for all contingencies. A senior U.S. official told CNN that the commander in chief had asked the Pentagon to ensure that it had adequate plans in place to accomplish an orderly withdrawal by the end of the year should the United States not keep any troops in Afghanistan after 2014.

The situation in Afghanistan is expected to be a top item on the agenda at a NATO ministerial conference in Brussels this week. Defense Secretary Hagel has been very clear that the possibility of U.S. troops staying in Afghanistan depends on whether a bilateral security agreement is signed by the Afghan government.

The Afghan presidential election, which is scheduled for April, is seen as a crucial factor in the signing of the BSA. The longer it takes for the security agreement to get signed, the more difficult it will be for the United States to properly plan and carry out a mission after 2014. Asked what happens if no agreement gets signed, White House spokesman Jay Carney said that the United States cannot and will not have troops on the ground without a signed deal.

Abdullah Abdullah, a leading contender to succeed Karzai, has said that he would sign the deal to keep international forces in Afghanistan and aid dollars flowing if elected in April. Abdullah believes that Afghanistan will need the financial and military support of the international community “for years to come.”

The potential withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan also raises questions about the future of the U.S.-Afghan relationship. The United States has invested significant resources in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion, and a complete withdrawal could signal a lack of commitment to the country’s stability and security.

The Obama administration’s decision to plan for the possible withdrawal of all troops from Afghanistan by the end of the year, if no security agreement is signed, represents a significant shift in U.S. policy towards Afghanistan. It reflects the growing impatience of the U.S. government with the lack of progress in finalizing the BSA and the desire to bring an end to the nearly 13-year war in Afghanistan.

However, the potential consequences of a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan are far-reaching and complex. They include the possibility of a civil war in Afghanistan, the impact on the U.S.-Afghan relationship, and the implications for U.S. national security. As the situation unfolds, it is clear that the United States and Afghanistan are at a crossroads, and the decisions made in the coming months will have significant consequences for both countries.

In conclusion, the U.S. planning for the possible withdrawal of all troops from Afghanistan by the end of the year, if no security agreement is signed, marks a significant turning point in U.S.-Afghan relations. This development reflects the growing impatience of the U.S. government with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai’s refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement and the desire to bring an end to the nearly 13-year war in Afghanistan. The potential consequences of a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan are far-reaching and complex, and the decisions made in the coming months will have significant consequences for both countries.