Trump’s Lead in Georgia: A Fox News Poll Analysis

The recent Fox News Poll released on February 1, 2024, revealed a significant lead for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden in the crucial swing state of Georgia. The poll, which surveyed 1,119 Georgia registered voters, showed Trump receiving just over 50% support, while Biden trailed behind with 43% support. This 8-point lead for Trump is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error, indicating a strong position for the former president in the state.

The poll results were met with surprise, given that Biden had won Georgia in the 2020 presidential election by a slim margin of less than 1 point. The Fox News Polling data showed that Trump’s support was not limited to his base but extended to various demographic groups.

Trump’s lead among independents was particularly noteworthy, with 51% of this group expressing their intention to vote for Trump, compared to 31% for Biden. Additionally, voters under the age of 35 also favored Trump by a margin of 7 points. These findings suggest that Trump’s appeal transcends traditional political boundaries and could potentially attract voters from both parties.

The polling data also highlighted the strong support Trump received from his base, including White evangelicals (85%), conservatives (76%), White voters without a college degree (74%), and rural voters (67%). Biden, on the other hand, received significant support from liberals (87%), Black voters (71%), voters with a college degree (52%), and suburban women (52%).

Interestingly, Democrats and Republicans were equally likely to support their respective candidates (91% each), while independents went for Trump by a substantial margin of 20 points. This trend was further emphasized by the fact that more Republicans (83%) than Democrats (78%) were interested in the election.

Biden’s performance among younger voters was a cause for concern, with those under age 35 favoring Trump by 7 points. This demographic is crucial for the Democratic Party, and losing their support could have significant implications for the party’s electoral prospects.

The polling data also revealed that a majority of Georgians (60%) believed Biden was legitimately elected in 2020. However, over 2 in 10 (22%) of this group would still vote for Trump in 2024. Among those who believed Biden’s victory was suspect, 97% expressed their intention to vote for Trump.

In a five-way race, Trump still led the pack, with 45% support, while both the former president and current incumbent lost support to third-party candidates. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein received a combined total of 12% support.

The polling data also tested a hypothetical five-way race with Nikki Haley replacing Trump. In this scenario, third-party candidates helped Biden and hurt Haley, with Biden coming out on top by 6 points and Haley receiving 29% support. Among Trump supporters, just 46% would back Haley, while 31% would vote third-party, 6% wouldn’t cast a ballot at all, and 13% were undecided. Haley received over 50% support among registered Republicans (52%), but nowhere near the 83% Trump garnered in his five-way race.

Independents splintered when it came to Haley, with 20% backing her, 22% going for Biden, and a larger share (30%) supporting Kennedy. By comparison, Trump received 34% support among independent Georgia voters, compared to 21% for Biden and 17% for Kennedy.

The economy was the top issue nationally and in Georgia, with 44% of Georgians feeling they were falling behind financially. In deciding their vote this November, 62% considered the economy to be extremely important. Other issues, such as election integrity, health care, immigration/border security, abortion, the Israel-Hamas war, climate change, and the Ukraine-Russia war, received less importance.

Trump came out on top on most issues, including immigration/border security, the economy, Israel-Hamas, and Ukraine-Russia. Voters were split on health care and election integrity, while Biden led on climate change.

The Fox News Polling data suggested that the coalition that gave Biden a slim victory in 2020 was in need of reassembly. On crucial issues like the border and the economy, Georgia voters thought Trump was significantly better, and Biden would need to make inroads on these issues to win Georgia again.

Another topic surrounding the presidential candidates was their mental acuity, with more voters expressing concern about Biden’s mental soundness (65%) than Trump’s (51%). Biden’s job ratings were on par with his national ratings, which were underwater (41% approval vs. 58% disapproval in Georgia).

Georgia voters were ready for change, with nearly 8 in 10 wanting either a lot (50%) or radical (29%) change in how the country was run. Trump won among those who wanted at least a lot of change, while Biden won among the remainder.

The poll was conducted between January 26-30, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The results had a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights were generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of survey respondents were representative of the registered voter population.

In conclusion, the Fox News Poll revealed a significant lead for Trump over Biden in Georgia, with 51% of registered voters expressing their intention to vote for the former president. Trump’s support extended beyond his base and included independents and younger voters. The economy was the top issue for Georgians, and Trump came out on top on most issues, including the border and the economy. The polling data suggested that the coalition that gave Biden a slim victory in 2020 was in need of reassembly, and Biden would need to address the concerns of Georgia voters on crucial issues to win the state again.