The State of Scottish Independence: From Referendum Plans to Current Challenges

In recent years, the Scottish independence movement has experienced a series of ups and downs, leaving proponents of independence eager to push forward with their agenda. However, various obstacles have prevented them from achieving their goals thus far.

At the center of the Scottish independence movement is Nicola Sturgeon, the former First Minister of Scotland. In June of last year, she announced her intentions to hold a second independence referendum on October 19, 2023. However, these plans were thwarted by a Supreme Court ruling, which determined that Sturgeon did not have the power to unilaterally call for a referendum. This setback forced the Scottish National Party (SNP) to go back to the drawing board.

To rebuild their strategy, the SNP recently agreed on a new approach based on winning the majority of seats in Scotland during the next general election. In the 2019 election, the SNP had won 48 seats, but recent polling suggests that the party has lost much of its previous lead over the Labour Party. Despite opposition from both the Conservatives and Labour, the desire for independence remains strong within the “Yes” movement.

The independence movement has organized various events to rally support and showcase the continued enthusiasm for Scottish independence. One such event, called the Chain of Freedom, involved members of the Yes movement linking arms to form a human chain across the central belt of Scotland. Participants in the event, like Mandi McInnes from Perth and Beverley Craig from Crieff, believe that these gatherings demonstrate the continued appetite for independence among Scots, particularly the younger generation.

However, supporters of independence often feel that their views are not adequately represented in the media. Many feel that there is a misconception that the desire for independence has waned since Sturgeon left office. Mandi McInnes shared her experience of encountering people who mistakenly believed that the momentum for independence had disappeared, emphasizing that this was not the case.

One key demographic that has shown a shift in support for independence since the 2014 referendum is women. According to Sir John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, voting intentions among women have changed significantly, as have the attitudes of young Scots. Younger voters have consistently shown a greater inclination towards independence than their older counterparts. Curtice identifies Brexit as a major factor in the independence debate, with Scotland voting to remain in the EU while the UK as a whole voted to leave.

The Yes movement has faced its fair share of challenges and internal divisions in recent years. These include controversies surrounding SNP finances, gender recognition reform, and differing opinions on the path to independence. Some activists have grown disillusioned with the political leadership due to what they see as countless false summits and a lack of progress. Humza Yousaf, who succeeded Sturgeon as SNP leader, has sought to strengthen ties with grassroots movements by attending Yes events and urging unity behind his independence strategy. However, some activists, like Neil Mackay, argue that there needs to be more determination and drive from the government to achieve independence.

Support for independence has settled at around 49% in 2023, according to Professor Curtice, although this figure does not include undecided voters. Judith Allardyce, an enthusiastic independence supporter from Edinburgh, believes that both sides of the independence debate need to develop a coherent answer to the question of whether the risks of being outside the EU are greater than the risks of being outside the UK.

In conclusion, the Scottish independence movement has faced numerous hurdles and challenges in recent years. While there is still a strong desire for independence among many Scots, a lack of a clear political strategy and concerns about the risks involved have hindered progress. The movement is working to build support among young people, who they believe will play a crucial role in driving the campaign forward. Ultimately, only time will tell how public opinion in Scotland will evolve and whether independence will become a reality.