The Resurgence of the Liberal Democrats: A Focused Electoral Approach

The Liberal Democrats are currently riding a wave of survivor elation, eight years after a near-death experience following their time in a coalition government with the Conservatives. During these post-coalition years, they’ve managed to rediscover their political mojo. Not only have they found their groove again, but they’ve also strategically set their sights on specific targets in the political landscape, primarily focusing on the Tories, especially in the southern regions of England. This new, more targeted approach is what grants the Liberal Democrats an outsized influence on the political stage.

Despite having only 15 MPs, accounting for a mere 2.3% of Parliament’s total, their string of by-election victories against the Conservatives has sent shivers down the spines of numerous Tory politicians. While the sheer number of MPs doesn’t always reveal the full picture of a political leader’s approach, the frequency with which Ed Davey referred to the Conservatives during his party conference speech in Bournemouth speaks volumes—27 times, to be precise. In contrast, mentions of the Labour party were limited to just three.

Senior party figures have candidly described their performance in the last general election as a “fiasco.” In that election, the Liberal Democrats garnered 3.7 million votes, securing an 11.5% share of the vote and only 11 seats, one less than they had in 2017. Sir Ed Davey has consistently criticized his party for spreading itself too thin during the 2019 election, contrasting with his predecessor Jo Swinson’s ambitious aim of winning hundreds of seats. To win seats under the first-past-the-post system, parties need strongholds of support in specific regions, rather than scattered votes across many areas. The party now recognizes that an overly broad approach, driven by hubris, was a mistake.

While the Liberal Democrats have not publicly disclosed the exact number of seats they are targeting in the next general election, it is expected to be around 30 to 40. Recent council elections and by-elections have tempted party strategists to increase this number, but the shadow of their 2019 election performance looms large. With their current political focus on the Conservatives and geographical emphasis on areas that voted for Brexit in the EU referendum, the party has shelved some of its traditional priorities, such as increasing taxes and putting a penny on income tax.

Party leaders have chosen not to vehemently bash Brexit and raise taxes, as they perceive little interest in these topics among the voters they aim to attract. Instead, they are channeling their energy into issues like the National Health Service, the cost of living, and environmental concerns like sewage in rivers and the sea. While their messaging may be tailored to specific regions, these topics are viewed as the touchstone issues in the areas crucial to the Liberal Democrats.

Party officials are well aware of election expert Professor Sir John Curtice’s observation that opinion polls indicate the Liberal Democrat national share of the vote has remained largely stagnant since the last general election. Their hope lies in their targeted approach, concentrating their efforts in the areas where they have a real chance of winning.

The challenge ahead is assembling the necessary resources to campaign effectively in 30 to 40 different places simultaneously, which is quite distinct from pouring all party resources into a single by-election campaign. The Liberal Democrats are charting a focused, strategic course in their quest to regain political prominence. Whether this approach will yield the desired results remains to be seen.