The Looming Crisis Over Ukraine Funding in the US House of Representatives: A Battle Between Speaker Mike Johnson and the Majority

The current political climate in the US House of Representatives is fraught with tension and uncertainty, as the House is heading towards a potential “nuclear” war over funding for Ukraine. This crisis, according to House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, is due in large part to Speaker Mike Johnson’s fear of being ousted and the inability of the House to pass a deal on funding for Ukraine and other national security initiatives.

The situation has reached a critical point, with two funding deadlines looming on March 1 and March 8 to keep all government services operating. The House of Representatives is currently in recess until February 28, and President Biden has been urging House Republicans to pass national security funding, specifically aid for Ukraine, which has been at the center of House gridlock.

Johnson and Democratic Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer have already negotiated overall spending amounts for defense and domestic programs. However, the political backlash from hard-right House Republicans could prevent the passage of specific allocations under individual spending bills, leading to a potential government shutdown. McHenry believes that Johnson’s fear of this backlash is the primary reason for the standoff.

“All the speaker has to do is allow the Appropriations Committee to go get a deal,” McHenry said. “We will have a deal by March 1 and March 8 if we can allow just momentum to occur. If the speaker wishes to stop it for whatever reason, we’ll probably have a government shutdown. It will come down to the speaker’s decision on whether or not to just fund the government and get on with the deal.”

The consequences of a government shutdown could be significant, with McHenry predicting higher spending and less policy as a result. The situation is further complicated by the fact that a sizable majority of House Republicans and Democrats support the Senate-passed national security bill that includes military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

McHenry also noted that Johnson’s fear of being ousted is a legitimate concern, given the recent history of the House. In October 2023, eight House Republicans teamed with all House Democrats to remove then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy from the speakership, forcing McHenry to serve as a temporary speaker while Republicans struggled to find a replacement. Johnson is the fifth choice for the speakership, and McHenry acknowledged that he has had a difficult time adjusting to the role.

“We went through five choices and Mike Johnson’s the fifth choice,” McHenry said. “He has not been around these leadership decisions. He’s had a really tough process. We’ve thrown him into the deepest end of the pool with the heaviest weights around him and (we’re) trying to teach him how to learn to swim. It’s been a rough couple of months.”

The House typically functions at the direction of the majority party, which sets the legislative agenda and enforces the rules under which bills are debated. However, any speaker can stand in the way of the majority will on the House floor for a period of time. McHenry expressed hope that Johnson would come around to seeing the situation in a “very sensible way.”

Absent Johnson relenting and allowing a vote on the Senate bill, McHenry suggested two parliamentary maneuvers that could circumvent him: a discharge petition or defeating the previous question. Both would require Democrats and enough Republicans to unite and force consideration of the bill. McHenry acknowledged that the discharge petition had a better than 30% chance of success, while defeating the previous question was almost never successful.

“We’ve not done this in generations in the U. S. House of Representatives,” McHenry said. “Defeating the previous question is something like a nuclear device. It is a vast act of war. That is the other mechanism to bring this bill to the floor.”

McHenry also urged Republicans to be motivated by the death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, which he described as a barbaric act by the Putin regime. He rejected comparisons between the charges faced by former President Trump and the persecution and assassination attempts faced by Navalny.

“While [Trump] has been targeted politically, and I believe he has, the barbaric state of the Putin regime is in no comparison to American jurisprudence – broadly or specifically,” McHenry said. “Nor [comparable] to the ramifications of being put in American prison versus any other prison in the world.”

McHenry also denounced the advice Trump received and his rhetoric around the 2020 election, which he described as “stupidity” and “outsized rhetoric in an attempt to get further to the right to get political power.” He would not say whether he thought the charges against Trump were warranted but expressed concern about the impact of Trump’s actions on the Constitution.

In conclusion, the crisis over Ukraine funding in the US House of Representatives is a complex and volatile situation, with Speaker Mike Johnson’s fear of being ousted standing in the way of a deal that has broad support among both Republicans and Democrats. The potential consequences of a government shutdown are significant, and McHenry has suggested two parliamentary maneuvers that could circumvent Johnson if he refuses to allow a vote on the Senate bill. The situation is further complicated by the death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny and the comparisons being drawn between the charges faced by former President Trump and the persecution faced by Navalny. Ultimately, the outcome of this crisis will depend on the actions of Speaker Johnson and the ability of the House to come together and pass a deal on funding for Ukraine and other national security initiatives.