The 2024 New Hampshire Primary: A Two-Person Race Between Trump and Haley

The 2024 New Hampshire Primary is shaping up to be a two-person race between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. With the recent suspension of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ campaign, the stage is set for a heated battle between these two prominent Republican figures.

Nikki Haley, who served as the U.N. Ambassador in Trump’s administration, has been framing the GOP nomination battle as a two-candidate showdown between herself and Trump. In her first rally since DeSantis dropped out of the race, Haley told her supporters in New Hampshire that “Can you hear that sound? That’s the sound of a two-person race.”

Despite Haley’s optimism, most polls indicate that Trump holds a double-digit lead over Haley in the latest polls in New Hampshire. According to a Suffolk University, Boston Globe, and NBC10 in Boston daily tracking poll, Trump stands at 57% support, while Haley trails behind at 38%. Both candidates received two-point bumps with the departure of DeSantis, who was a distant third in New Hampshire in the single digits.

Trump’s dominance in the polls is not surprising, as he secured a convincing victory in the Iowa caucuses, the first contest on the GOP presidential nominating calendar. He grabbed 51% of the votes, 30 points ahead of Haley and DeSantis.

However, New Hampshire, where independent voters who make up roughly 40% of the electorate can vote in either major party’s contest, may be fertile ground for Haley. The latest surveys indicate Trump dominating among registered Republicans, with Haley grabbing majority support among independents.

Veteran New Hampshire-based Republican consultant Jim Merrill told Fox News that DeSantis’ departure from the race “narrows Haley’s margin for error here. Many, if not most, of DeSantis voters are going to migrate over to Trump. And so it’s critical for her to do well in New Hampshire to give her some momentum heading into South Carolina.”

Mike Dennehy, another longtime New Hampshire-based GOP strategist, was more blunt. “I think it puts a nail in her coffin,” he said of Haley. “I don’t think she’ll be able to keep under 50%. And I think there’s a very good chance that Trump hits 60% on Tuesday, which will signal the end of the Haley campaign and virtually seal the deal for the Trump nomination.”

Despite the odds against her, Haley remains confident. In a one-on-one interview with Fox News Digital, she said her message to voters who were supporting DeSantis is, “it’s time for a new generation. It’s time to stop the chaos. It’s time to stop the noise and get America back on track.” Additionally, she pledged that she would “absolutely” be moving on to South Carolina’s primary on Feb. 24 regardless of her finish in New Hampshire.

Haley’s home state holds the next major contest on the GOP presidential nominating calendar. If she fails to make a strong showing in New Hampshire, her campaign may struggle to gain momentum in South Carolina.

The 2024 New Hampshire Primary is a crucial contest in the race for the Republican nomination. With Trump and Haley locked in a tight battle, the outcome of the primary could have significant implications for the rest of the campaign. Stay tuned for updates on this developing story.