Stock Market Predictions for 2024

In 2023, the stock market finished near record highs, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 24%. This was due to the Federal Reserve’s pivot, which led to a shift in investor sentiment and a belief that interest rates would decrease. However, despite the market’s optimism at the end of the year, Wall Street is not expecting much upside for stocks in 2024.

According to a survey by Bloomberg, the median target among 20 Wall Street strategists is for the S&P 500 to finish 2024 at 4,850, which is less than 2% higher than its closing value in 2023. This suggests that the market is expecting limited growth in the coming year.

One of the reasons for this cautious outlook is the wide range of targets for 2024. For example, Oppenheimer and Fundstrat have the most bullish projections, with year-end targets of 5,200 for the S&P 500, reflecting about 9% upside from the 2023 close. On the other hand, JPMorgan predicts that the S&P 500 will decline to 4,200 in 2024, which would represent a 12% drop from its 2023 closing value.

The divide between bulls and bears for 2024 largely depends on how different firms see the economy in the coming year. Those who either do not expect a recession or believe that it will have minimal impact on stocks predict that the S&P 500 will reach at least 5,000 in 2024. This camp includes firms such as Oppenheimer, Fundstrat, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America.

Brian Belski at BMO refers to any pending recession as the “Chicken Little recession,” a reference to the fictional character who believes the sky is falling. Belski thinks that if there is a downturn in 2024, it will be a “recession in name only.”

In summary, while the stock market finished 2023 near record highs, Wall Street is not expecting significant growth in 2024. The range of targets for the S&P 500 in 2024 is wide, with bullish projections of 5,200 and bearish projections of 4,200. The outlook for 2024 largely depends on how different firms see the economy and whether or not a recession is expected.