Premier League: Christmas Table Toppers and Their Chances of Winning the Title

The Premier League has seen Arsenal leading the table at Christmas for the fourth time, but history suggests that this position does not guarantee a win. Arsenal has been in the top spot at Christmas in 2002, 2007, and 2022, but they have not won the title in any of those seasons. In fact, out of the past six times Arsenal has been at the top of the table at Christmas, they have not won the league.

The chances of winning the title for a team at the top of the table at Christmas have been inconsistent. In the past five seasons, only two teams have managed to win the title after being at the top of the table at Christmas. Liverpool won the title in 2019-2020, and Manchester City won in 2021-2022. However, in the nine seasons before that, eight of the teams at the top of the table at Christmas went on to win the title.

The team’s performance at Christmas does not necessarily determine their fate for the season. Manchester United, currently in fifth place, can take inspiration from the past, as Manchester City managed to climb from eighth place in 2020-21 to win the title. In two other seasons, teams outside the top four at Christmas have gone on to become champions. Manchester United was fifth in 1996-97, and Arsenal was sixth the following season.

The bottom club, Sheffield United, may still have a chance, as history suggests there is a 13% chance of survival. Four teams have managed to stay up despite being at the bottom of the table at Christmas: West Bromwich Albion in 2004-05, Sunderland in 2013-14, Leicester in 2014-15, and Wolves in 2022-23. However, there have only been three seasons where the relegation zone remained the same on December 25 and the final day.

Teams in the top 10 at Christmas should not become complacent, as two teams have been in the top 10 and still gone down. Norwich was seventh in 1994-95, and Blackpool was 10th in 2010-11.

In conclusion, while being at the top of the table at Christmas can be an indicator of a team’s potential, it does not guarantee a win. Teams should not become overly confident or complacent, as there have been instances of teams climbing the table to win the title and teams in the top 10 going down. The season is far from over, and anything can happen.