Is Inflation Really a Hidden Tax? New Research Sheds Light on the Effects of Inflation on Wealth

Renowned economist Milton Friedman once described inflation as a “hidden tax” that erodes consumers’ purchasing power. However, recent research has found that the effects of inflation on wealth are more nuanced than previously thought.

In a working paper titled “Is There Really an Inflation Tax?” economist Edward Nathan Wolff of New York University analyzed the impact of inflation on Americans’ wealth from 1983 to 2019. Contrary to popular belief, Wolff found that the “inflation tax” does exist, but its effects vary depending on income level.

Wolff used data from the consumer price index and Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances to assess changes in incomes and overall wealth during periods of sustained inflation. He discovered that while there is a clear “inflation tax” on incomes, there is another side to inflation that can benefit certain groups.

For example, inflation can cause asset prices, particularly in real estate, to rise significantly. Simultaneously, it can reduce the real debt burdens of individuals. This means that households with a large amount of assets or debt relative to their incomes, such as recent homebuyers or the wealthy, have historically experienced substantial gains in wealth due to inflation.

Wolff found that inflation had a positive effect on the middle class and the top 1% of Americans, while negatively impacting the poor. The top 1% saw a significant increase in net wealth, while those below the 1% experienced a decrease. The middle-class households, particularly those in the 60th to 80th wealth percentile, benefited from inflation due to their high portion of wealth invested in real estate.

However, for the bottom two quintiles of the wealth distribution, inflation remained a nightmare, leading to a decrease in net wealth.

Wolff noted that the perception of inflation as a negative phenomenon is due to consumers’ awareness of its impact on their incomes, but not its positive effects on assets and debt. Rising prices at grocery stores or gas stations are more noticeable, while the positive wealth effect from inflation lowering mortgage costs is less obvious.

The decrease in the middle class over the years has been partially attributed to inflation. The Great Recession, the dotcom bubble, and the ongoing pandemic have contributed to a decline in middle-income Americans. This has raised concerns about wealth inequality.

Wolff’s findings suggest that lower rates of inflation would protect poorer families but harm the middle class, potentially widening income disparities. As a solution, he proposed an inflation tax credit, where the IRS would calculate the previous year’s inflation rate and provide incentives to those most affected by rising prices. This could alleviate the burden of inflation for low-income families while still allowing middle-income families to benefit.

Overall, this research challenges the perception of inflation as solely a negative force by highlighting its complex effects on different income groups.