Geopolitical Risks for 2024: The United States Facing Internal Challenges and Middle East Instability

The year 2024 is predicted to be a year of significant geopolitical risks, according to a report from Eurasia Group, a leading geopolitical risk research and consulting firm. The report identifies two major risks: the United States dealing with internal political challenges and the Middle East on the brink of instability.

The United States, despite its global economic and military dominance, is considered the most dysfunctional political system among wealthy democracies. The report’s author, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, stated that the U.S. is the only wealthy democracy that cannot guarantee a free and fair legitimate transfer of power, which is essential for a functional democracy. This concern is shared by U.S. allies and adversaries alike, who see it as an opportunity for chaos.

Bremmer explained that the abundance of distrust towards major institutions like Congress, churches, or the media within the U.S. has led to a deep divide between Trump supporters and Biden supporters, creating an antagonistic relationship that resembles that of Israel and Hamas or Russia and Ukraine.

The Eurasia Group’s top 10 risks for 2024 include:

1. The United States versus itself
2. Middle East on the brink
3. Partitioned Ukraine
4. Ungoverned AI
5. Axis of rogues
6. No China recovery
7. The fight for critical minerals
8. No room for error
9. El Niño is back
10. Risky business

The report emphasizes the importance of addressing these risks to maintain global stability and prevent potential crises.