Fox News Poll Reveals Trump’s Lead in North Carolina Presidential Race

The latest Fox News Poll, released on February 14, 2024, reveals that former President Donald Trump is leading the North Carolina presidential race against President Joe Biden. The poll, which surveyed 1,099 North Carolina registered voters, found that Trump received 50% support, while Biden received 45% support. This 5-point lead falls within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Trump’s strong support comes from his base, including Republicans (94%), White evangelicals (78%), White men without a college degree (71%), and rural Whites (67%). Self-identified independents also break for Trump by 11 percentage points (48% Trump vs. 37% Biden).

Biden, on the other hand, has strong support from his key coalition groups, including Democrats (91%), Black voters (75%), suburban women (59%), urban voters (57%), and voters with a college degree (55%).

The poll also found that 95% of 2020 Trump voters back their candidate again, while 90% of 2020 Biden voters say the same. However, voters under age 30 and those ages 65 and over are relatively split in their support between Biden and Trump.

Third-party candidates are expected to be on the November ballot, and the survey shows they hurt Biden more than Trump. When other candidates are included, Biden slips to 37%, Trump is still ahead, but drops to 46%, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 8% support, Jill Stein receives 2%, and Cornel West receives 1%.

Fourteen percent of those who backed Biden in the one-on-one matchup against Trump say they would vote third party, while for Trump, that number is 7%. Democratic pollster Chris Anderson notes that Biden’s coalition is scattered in North Carolina, and if partisans come to believe a third-party vote equals a vote for Trump, the race could tighten quickly.

The poll also reveals that Biden’s job rating is underwater, with 41% approving and 59% disapproving. North Carolina voters are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (45%) than strongly approve (20%).

More than 4 in 10 (44%) North Carolinians feel they are falling behind financially, while only 13% say they are getting ahead. The economy is the number one issue voters are considering when deciding their vote for president, with 66% saying it is extremely important to their vote.

Trump is seen as better able to handle the economy than Biden by 16 points (56% Trump vs. 40% Biden). Trump also has a stronger hold on immigration/border security (+19 points), Israel-Hamas war (+15), and foreign policy (+8).

Voters are split on other priorities such as health care (Biden +1) and election integrity (Biden +2). The story is similar on abortion (Biden +2), although Biden has a stronger hold on climate change (+8).

Six in ten North Carolinians side more with the Israelis than the Palestinians (59% vs. 22%). Those backing the Israelis support Trump in the head-to-head, while those supporting the Palestinians go for Biden.

Democratic pollster Chris Shaw notes that North Carolina has been a fool’s gold for Democrats in recent years, and Biden needs to make the election about health care, abortion, and election integrity to reclaim enough support among Democrats and independents.

In a hypothetical head-to-head, Nikki Haley also bests Biden by 5 points, but doesn’t reach the 50% support Trump does (46% Haley vs. 41% Biden). However, when the race is expanded to include third-party candidates, Haley trails Biden by 2 points (31% Haley vs. 33% Biden).

The poll was conducted from February 8-12, 2024, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The results have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.