Climate Change and Its Impact on Air Quality: A New Challenge for Regulators

Climate change is a pressing issue that has been gaining significant attention in recent years. The increasing global temperatures, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels are just a few of the many consequences of this phenomenon. However, one of the most concerning impacts of climate change is its effect on air quality. According to a new report by the First Street Foundation, climate change is projected to erase previous gains in air quality in the United States, leading regulators to adapt to evolving threats.

Air quality has long been a concern for regulators, with significant progress made in reducing emissions from smokestacks and tailpipes. However, climate change is now posing a new challenge. The report reveals that around 10 percent of properties in the US, approximately 14.3 million, already experience a week or more of days with unhealthy air quality due to fine particle pollution. Nearly half of these properties have it even worse, with two weeks or more of unhealthy air quality days.

The report’s findings are based on data from the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) network of air quality sensors across the nation. By combining this data with First Street’s existing peer-reviewed fire and heat models, the researchers were able to make predictions about the future. The report suggests that air quality in 2054 could revert back to how bad it was in 2004, wiping away 20 years of air quality improvements. An additional 1.7 million properties are expected to face 10 or more poor air quality days a year from both soot and smog, a 15 percent rise from today.

The primary drivers of worsening air quality with climate change are wildfires and smog. Smog, or ground-level ozone, is produced through a photochemical reaction where nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds react with each other in sunlight. Climate change is making heatwaves longer and more intense, and pollution is part of the problem. Hot, arid conditions also prime the land to burn, making fire a significant contributor to poor air quality.

The Western US is particularly affected by this issue, with the number of poor air quality days growing by as much as 477 percent between 2000 and 2021. The EPA’s color-coded air quality index and counts the number of days in which the index value is at least considered “unhealthy for sensitive groups” – an orange day. Red days are “unhealthy,” purple are “very unhealthy,” and maroon is considered “hazardous.” The researchers found that the average highest value for fine particle pollution has risen from orange to red since 2000.

The health risks from sudden, brief periods of pollution are different than those linked to persistent exposures to pollution. Health risks including problems related to respiratory and cardiovascular disease increase with chronic exposure. However, if there are more fires but less pollution in the rest of the year, the acute effects will increase but be offset by decreases in chronic effects.

Regulators will need to adapt to this new challenge by prioritizing the reduction of other pollutants, such as carbon dioxide and methane emissions that cause climate change. They will also need to focus on forest management to better keep wildfires under control. This links the local effects of air pollution to what’s happening in the wider world. Last year, wildfires in Canada sent a plume of smoke down to the Northeastern US, causing New York City to briefly hold the title for worst air quality in the world.

To see historical data and forecasts for future air quality in your region, you can check out First Street’s online tool at RiskFactor.com. It uses First Street’s peer-reviewed models for forecasting flood, fire, heat, and now, air quality risk. It will show how a property ranks compared to others in the US when it comes to local air quality, which sources of pollution are nearby, and how many days of poor air quality in the area to expect now and in the future.

In conclusion, climate change is having a significant impact on air quality, and regulators must adapt to this new challenge. By prioritizing the reduction of other pollutants and focusing on forest management, they can help mitigate the effects of climate change on air quality and protect public health. The First Street Foundation’s report and online tool provide valuable insights into this issue and can help individuals understand the risks and take action to protect themselves and their communities.