By-election Results: A Significant Challenge for the Conservatives

The by-elections held in the constituencies of Kingswood and Wellingborough on May 5, 2023, have left the Conservative Party with a significant challenge to overcome. The results saw Labour making double gains, with both seats previously held by the Conservatives now in their possession.

In the case of Kingswood, Labour’s Damien Egan overturned a Conservative majority of over 11,000 to win the seat. The swing towards Labour was substantial, with a 16.4% increase in their share of the votes cast. This was a disappointing result for the Conservatives, who had been hoping to hold onto this seat.

However, the result in Wellingborough was even more concerning for the Conservatives. Here, the swing towards Labour was a staggering 28.5%, the second-highest swing from Conservative to Labour in any post-war by-election. This was a significant defeat for the party, with their share of the votes cast falling by a massive 37.6 points.

These defeats were not entirely unexpected. In the second half of last year, the Conservatives lost three seats to Labour, each time due to swings of over 20%. The standing of the parties in the opinion polls has remained relatively unchanged since then, with Labour continuing to enjoy a significant lead. Consequently, big swings seemed inevitable.

Labour has now made four by-election gains from the Conservatives in this parliament. While the Conservatives gained Hartlepool from Labour in May 2021, the net loss of three seats to Labour equals the three seats the Conservatives lost to Labour between 1992 and 1997. And, as history has shown, these losses could be a harbinger of things to come.

The anti-EU, anti-immigration Reform UK party also had its best by-election performances to date, with 13% of the votes in Wellingborough and 10% in Kingswood. These performances are consistent with polling that has recorded a marked increase in the party’s support in recent months. According to the polls, most of Reform’s support is coming from those who might otherwise have voted Conservative if Reform were not standing.

The Conservatives will be concerned not only by having lost these seats but also by the scale and manner of their defeats. Their share of the votes cast fell significantly in both constituencies, raising questions about the party’s ability to hold onto its traditional strongholds.

To fend off the threat from Reform UK, MPs on the right of the party are likely to increase the pressure on Rishi Sunak to ensure that some asylum seekers are flown to Rwanda sooner rather than later. This could help to appease some of the party’s more hardline supporters and prevent further defections.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will be glad of the good news, but he will also be aware that these were by-elections where voters’ discontent with the Conservatives was not matched in equal measure by their enthusiasm for Labour. In both Kingswood and Wellingborough, the increase in Labour’s share of the votes cast was less than half the fall in Conservative support. This underlines the fact that many discontented Tories are going elsewhere, and the Conservatives will need to address this if they are to win back these voters.

Turnout was also down in both by-elections, with a 34-point drop in Kingswood compared to 2019 and a 26-point drop in Wellingborough. This is a worrying trend, as engaging voters will be a challenge for all the parties in the coming months.

In conclusion, the by-election results leave the Conservatives with a significant challenge to overcome. They have lost seats to Labour and Reform UK, and their share of the votes cast has fallen significantly in both constituencies. To fend off the threat from Reform UK, they will need to take action to appease their more hardline supporters. They will also need to address the fact that many discontented Tories are going elsewhere and find a way to win them back. Engaging voters will be a challenge for all the parties in the coming months, and the Conservatives will need to rise to this challenge if they are to turn things around.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University and Senior Research Fellow at the Scottish Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’. He is also co-host of the ‘Trendy’ podcast.