Shifting Migration Patterns Along the US-Mexico Border: A Focus on Arizona and California

The southern border of the United States, which stretches for 1,954 miles along Mexico, has long been a contentious issue in American politics. The influx of migrants crossing the border illegally has been a source of debate and controversy, with various administrations implementing different policies to address the issue. Recently, there have been significant shifts in migration patterns along the border, with Arizona and California seeing a surge in unlawful crossings while Texas experiences a dramatic decrease. In this article, we will explore the reasons behind these trends and the implications for border security and immigration policy.

According to internal federal government figures obtained by CBS News, overall illegal crossings along the US-Mexico border have dropped sharply since reaching a record high in December 2023. In January 2024, Border Patrol recorded 125,000 migrant apprehensions, a significant decrease from nearly 250,000 in December. However, the geographic trends of these migration flows have also changed dramatically.

In recent weeks, the Tucson sector in Arizona and the San Diego sector in California have become the busiest Border Patrol regions for migrant crossings. In both sectors, more than 1,000 migrants have been entering the US illegally each day in remote desert areas like Lukeville, Arizona, and Jacumba Hot Springs, California. These areas offer gaps in the border wall or holes cut by smugglers, making it easier for migrants to cross.

Meanwhile, along the 1,254-mile Texas border, crossings by migrants have plunged. The drop has been especially pronounced in the Del Rio sector, which was the second-busiest Border Patrol region in December. Border Patrol averaged 716 and 536 migrant apprehensions each day in Texas’ El Paso and Rio Grande Valley sectors, respectively, during the week ending on Feb. 4. The Del Rio sector, meanwhile, has been recording a few hundred apprehensions, and as few as 200, each day—compared to the 2,300 daily migrant crossings there in December.

The shifting migration patterns are clearly visible in Eagle Pass, a small Texas border city in the Del Rio sector that was one of the epicenters of the record influx in migrant crossings in December. At one point that month, Border Patrol held as many as 6,000 migrants in an outdoor staging area in a public park in Eagle Pass next to the Rio Grande, which thousands of migrants were crossing each day to enter the US. However, daily illegal crossings have slowed to a trickle in this area, which has been sealed off to the public and federal agents by Texas National Guard soldiers.

Using layers of razor and concertina wire, shipping containers, and other barriers, the Texas National Guard has fortified this 2.5-mile section of the southern border, making it exceedingly difficult for migrants to get past the riverbank of the Rio Grande. It has also sealed off the former Border Patrol staging area with concertina wire, blocking federal agents from processing migrants there.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has credited the marked decrease in migrant crossings near Eagle Pass to his state’s actions, stating that average daily crossings in that area have decreased from several thousand to just three in recent days. Abbott claimed that Texas represents more than 60% of the land miles of the border, but the overwhelming majority of people crossing the border are now doing so in Arizona and California, which are putting up no resistance to illegal immigration.

It is difficult to ascertain why exactly migration flows shift, as they are driven by many factors beyond actions in the US. Biden administration officials have attributed the marked drop in illegal crossings in recent weeks to actions by Mexican authorities to slow the flow of US-bound migrants since a meeting in Mexico City in late December 2023 between top officials from both countries. They also point to historical patterns in which crossings drop after the holidays.

Valeria Wheeler, the director of Mission Border Hope, the only migrant shelter in Eagle Pass, has noted that the number of migrants she received from Border Patrol started decreasing sharply around the start of 2024, before Texas took control of Shelby Park in the second week of January. In December, her shelter was receiving as many as 1,200 migrants each day. Now, she said, Border Patrol is dropping off a couple of dozen migrants daily. Wheeler, who lives in Piedras Negras, the Mexican city adjacent to Eagle Pass, stated that the Mexican government has made it very difficult for migrants to come to the border in this area.

The Mexican government’s efforts to curb the illicit industry of smuggling migrants across the border have had an impact on migration patterns. In addition, seasonal trends and the actions of criminal actors in Mexico also play a role in these shifts. The cartels have rerouted their routes to cross the border in areas where there is less resistance, such as Arizona and California.

The implications of these shifting migration patterns for border security and immigration policy are significant. The Biden administration has been working to address the root causes of migration from Central America and to implement a humane and effective immigration system. However, the surge in unlawful crossings in Arizona and California poses new challenges for border security and immigration enforcement.

The Republican governors of Arizona and California have called for increased border security and have taken steps to secure their states’ borders. In Arizona, Governor Doug Ducey has deployed the National Guard and requested federal assistance to secure the border. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom has called for increased funding for border security and has implemented new measures to address the influx of migrants.

The shifting migration patterns along the US-Mexico border highlight the complex nature of this issue and the need for a comprehensive and effective immigration policy. The Biden administration must work with Mexico and other countries in the region to address the root causes of migration and to implement a humane and effective immigration system. At the same time, border security and enforcement efforts must be adaptable to changing migration patterns and the actions of criminal actors.

In conclusion, the shifting migration patterns along the US-Mexico border, with a focus on Arizona and California, present new challenges for border security and immigration policy. The Biden administration must work with Mexico and other countries in the region to address the root causes of migration and to implement a humane and effective immigration system. At the same time, border security and enforcement efforts must be adaptable to changing migration patterns and the actions of criminal actors. By working together, the US and its partners can address this complex issue and ensure the safety and security of all communities along the border.