The House Republican Party’s Speaker Nomination Crisis

The House Republican Party finds itself in a state of disarray as it wrestles with internal divisions over its next speaker, seemingly oblivious to the perception of government dysfunction it’s projecting during a time of worsening global crises.

GOP lawmakers did choose Steve Scalise as their nominee for the position that stands second in the line of presidential succession on Wednesday. However, by nightfall, it became evident that the Louisiana Republican and current majority leader was encountering challenges in securing the necessary votes for the speakership during a floor vote.

While party leaders still aimed to conduct a vote for the speakership in the full chamber on Thursday, senior Republicans were contemplating their options should Scalise fail to garner the requisite support, as reported by CNN’s Manu Raju and Melanie Zanona.

“One Republican member remarked, ‘Steve is nowhere near 217,'” referencing the number of votes Scalise would need to become the speaker. However, doubts lingered about Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, the runner-up in Wednesday’s closed-door election, uniting the party and claiming the top position. This uncertainty could potentially open the door for a compromise candidate to emerge.

This upheaval in the House follows the removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy by eight Republicans voting with Democrats last week. In theory, Scalise stands on the precipice of becoming the most influential Republican in Washington. However, even if he manages to secure the required votes, he risks diluting his potential speakership with concessions to extremist factions needed for support.

This situation is reminiscent of the challenges McCarthy faced during the 15 rounds of balloting it took him to secure the job in January, ultimately leading to his ouster as speaker last week.

Additionally, Wednesday night witnessed a growing struggle for the position of majority leader, which could come into play if Scalise becomes the speaker. Several candidates, including Reps. Tom Emmer of Minnesota, Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, and Byron Donalds of Florida, are planning to run. However, some GOP leaders are perturbed that this jockeying is diverting attention from the pressing need to find a speaker.

Scalise’s challenge became evident when he managed to edge ahead of Jordan with a vote of 113 to 99 on Wednesday, but he still fell well short of the 217 votes required for the speakership. This means he can only afford to lose four votes within a GOP conference known for its divisions and chaos.

“We still have work to do,” Scalise admitted before heading into individual meetings with members who have yet to back him, reflecting the current state of the GOP that appears more skilled at dismantling institutions than governing.

Scalise worked tirelessly overnight to build a majority that could carry him to the speakership. Several members of the conference have expressed their intent to vote for Rep. Jim Jordan, despite Jordan’s commitment to nominate Scalise ahead of the House vote, a vote that party leaders hope to hold on Thursday.

The turmoil within the party, following McCarthy’s ouster, highlights the challenges of the slim House majority obtained in the midterm elections and the deep internal divisions that render the GOP conference unmanageable. This power vacuum conveys an image of incompetence to moderate voters in swing districts, essential for the party’s hopes of retaining the House in 2024. Furthermore, the neglect of congressional duties during a global crisis, notably after the Hamas incursion into Israel, provides valuable propaganda material to adversaries arguing that U.S. power is diminishing.

Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, emphasized the urgency of having a speaker for effective governance, stating that playing games with this issue only emboldens adversaries and undermines democracy.

Scalise, a survivor of a 2017 shooting at a congressional baseball practice and recent treatment for blood cancer, must navigate these challenges to secure a sustainable speakership. The fate of McCarthy, who conceded to hardliners, granting them the power to call a vote for his removal, serves as a cautionary tale. Scalise, while conservative and a strong fundraiser, must find a way to unite the party and avoid the same pitfalls.

The diverse concerns within the party further complicate Scalise’s bid. Some Republicans, like Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, express concerns about his health, while others, such as South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, raise issues related to Scalise’s past associations. Scalise also faces criticism for being seen as part of the House GOP establishment in a party that often embraces outsiders and insurgents.

As the evening progressed on Wednesday, senior Republicans grew increasingly pessimistic about Scalise’s chances of securing the necessary support. This situation frustrates mainstream Republicans who secured key victories in swing districts last year and are instrumental in determining the fate of the House next year.

The challenges Scalise faces extend beyond the internal strife within the party. Even if he manages to secure the speakership, he will confront the same intractable problems that McCarthy struggled to address, such as the possibility of a government shutdown next month.

In summary, the House Republican Party’s Speaker Nomination Crisis reflects a party divided and struggling to find a unifying leader in the face of multiple challenges, both within its ranks and on the global stage.