US Intelligence Assessment Suggests Israel Not Responsible for Gaza Hospital Strike

According to an unclassified intelligence assessment obtained by CNN, the US intelligence community assesses that the blast at the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza likely resulted in the deaths of 100 to 300 people. The assessment provides more detail regarding the initial assessment released on Wednesday, which concluded that Israel was not responsible for the strike.

The assessment, sent to Capitol Hill by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, expands on the US intelligence community’s initial findings and is based on available reporting, including intelligence, missile activity, and open-source video and images of the incident. It states, “Israel Probably Did Not Bomb Gaza Strip Hospital: We judge that Israel was not responsible for an explosion that killed hundreds of civilians yesterday at the Al Ahli Hospital in the Gaza Strip.”

Contrary to figures initially cited by Hamas of more than 500 deaths, the US intelligence community estimates the number of casualties at the “low end of the 100-to-300 spectrum.” Additionally, the assessment reveals that there was only light structural damage at the hospital, with no observable damage to the main building and no impact craters.

The initial assessment released by the US intelligence community on Wednesday came after President Joe Biden publicly stated in Israel that the strike appeared to be the result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza. Biden is scheduled to give a primetime address from the Oval Office on Thursday evening.

In response to accusations that Israel was responsible for the blast, the National Security Council stated that the Biden administration plans to share as much intelligence as possible about the strike with friends and partners in the region. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer mentioned that this information has already been shared publicly. The assessment notes that Palestinian militants in Gaza believe the explosion may have been caused by an errant rocket or missile launch by Palestine Islamic Jihad, but further investigation is still ongoing.

The assessment emphasizes that the US takes the deaths of all civilians seriously and is working intensively to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. It serves as a cautionary note for governments and the press, highlighting the danger of drawing conclusions amid the fog of war.

The Biden administration has been discussing whether to declassify raw intelligence to provide a clearer assessment to the public. The White House believes that doing so would help establish a clear and accurate narrative of events, but it has not yet reached a conclusion on the effectiveness of raw intelligence in this effort.

There is growing concern that the US and Israel have lost control of the narrative in Gaza, with accusations that Israel was to blame for the hospital blast. Despite this, former intelligence officials and sources familiar with current US intelligence express skepticism that any public release of information would be believed in the Arab world.

Following a classified briefing on Capitol Hill, a bipartisan group of senators urged the Biden administration to make as much of the intelligence as possible public. They also stressed the importance of reducing tensions in countries that have had good relationships with Israel, such as Jordan and Egypt.

Overall, the US intelligence assessment provides more insight into the Gaza hospital strike, suggesting that Israel was not responsible. The Biden administration is working to share relevant information and address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Efforts are also being made to establish a clear and accurate narrative of events, although skepticism remains about its impact in the Arab world.