Republican Legislators Release Redistricting Proposals in North Carolina

Republican legislators in North Carolina have unveiled two redistricting proposals that could potentially endanger four Democratic-held seats in the US House. This move could have significant implications for which party gains the upper hand in the chamber after the 2024 elections.

The newly proposed maps will be considered by the Republican-controlled state legislature as they work towards finalizing the boundaries. Unlike other states, North Carolina’s redistricting legislation does not require approval from the Democratic Governor, Roy Cooper.

Given that Republicans currently hold supermajorities in the North Carolina legislature, it was widely anticipated that these redistricting efforts would primarily benefit the GOP. Currently, the state’s congressional delegation is split 7-7 between Democrats and Republicans.

Both of the proposed maps released on Wednesday would create districts that would make it extremely difficult for three House Democrats to win, according to Chris Cooper, a political science professor and redistricting expert at Western Carolina University. The districts of Reps. Jeff Jackson, Wiley Nickel, and Kathy Manning would all become very challenging for Democrats to secure.

Additionally, one of the proposed plans could potentially pose a threat to a fourth Democrat by grouping two of the state’s three Black House lawmakers, Reps. Don Davis and Valerie Foushee, into the same district. However, the other proposal would not set up a direct competition between Davis and Foushee, though it would make Davis’ seat more favorable for Republicans while remaining competitive for both parties.

The North Carolina Democratic Party strongly criticized the new map proposals, with party Chair Anderson Clayton stating that diluting the voices of people of color to entrench power is a manipulation of democracy.

Experts suggest that depending on the map ultimately chosen by lawmakers, Republicans could be favored to win as many as 11 out of the state’s 14 congressional districts next year. However, it is important to note that the state as a whole remains politically divided, with North Carolina voters giving a slim 1-point margin to Donald Trump over Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.

At the moment, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the US House, as highlighted by the ongoing struggle to elect a new speaker. Across the country, politicians are engaged in contentious battles, both legislative and in the courts, over individual district lines as they vie for any advantage. Recently, a federal court approved a new map in Alabama, which created a new Democratic-leaning seat.

However, if changes are made to North Carolina’s congressional map, it does not automatically ensure an advantage for Republicans in the upcoming elections. In states like New York, Democrats could have the final say in map-drawing, potentially nullifying any gains made by the GOP in North Carolina.

The increased authority of North Carolina Republicans in redistricting decisions stems from significant victories in the 2022 midterm elections. Notably, Republicans secured a majority in North Carolina’s Supreme Court, where justices are elected through partisan elections. Earlier this year, the new GOP majority on the court overturned a 2022 ruling by the previously Democratic-leaning court that opposed partisan gerrymandering.

The current equitable division of the state’s congressional delegation was a result of a map created after the 2022 court ruling. However, with the current political landscape, it seems that Republicans feel empowered due to their majority in the state Supreme Court, which may have influenced the initial redistricting proposals.

Committee hearings are scheduled for Thursday, with final votes in the North Carolina legislature expected to take place next week.